MLB betting: Red Sox to flex their muscles against The Padres

Barry Zito’s continued road woes will be the undoing of his San Francisco Giants on Wednesday against the Cincinnati Reds.

Quite simply, Zito has been a train wreck on the road. While his home numbers (4-1 with a 1.98 ERA) are more than respectable, his performance outside of AT&T Park is a brutal 0-5 with a 10.41 ERA. Zito is unlikely to break that pattern against a Reds club that has a lifetime .292 batting average against him in 112 plate appearances.

Considering that average, as expected, Zito has not thrown well at Great American Ball Park in the past. In six starts there, he’s 0-2 with a 6.10 ERA. He faces Tony Cingrani, who has replaced a recently injured Johnny Cueto, in the Cincinnati rotation. Cingrani previously filled in for Cueto with success. In seven starts this season he is 3-0 with a 3.15 ERA. Pick the Reds at 1.51.

The Boston Red Sox should capture a home victory against the San Diego Padres. Boston has been such an amazing offensive force in 2013. They lead the Major Leagues in runs scored per game and they do their best work at the plate at home, where they have a robust .288 batting average and .469 slugging percentage.

Red Sox starter Jon Lester hasn’t been at the top of his game in 2013. He has a 4.61 ERA. But when throwing at Fenway Park, he’s been far more focused. At home this year he’s 3-0 with a 3.24 ERA in six starts (compared to 5-4 with a 5.48 ERA on the road).

The Padres haven’t been nearly as potent an offensive team. Admittedly their numbers are dampened by playing in pitcher friendly Petco Park, but even in away games, they’re batting just .253 with a .398 slugging percentage. San Diego starter Edinson Volquez has been a flop on the road with a 6.23 ERA. The Red Sox are the right choice in this one.

Best bet: Red Sox to beat the San Diego Padres at 1.51