MLB betting: Reds to hit the road running

Two starting pitchers with favorable splits will yield a low scoring game between the Colorado Rockies and the Padres in San Diego on Tuesday.

Both the Rockies’ Jhoulys Chacin and the Padres’ Eric Stults are right where they want to be. Chacin is 2-1 with a 2.05 ERA on the road and Stults is 3-1 with a 2.85 ERA at Petco Park. Both pitchers also have excellent track records against their opposing team’s hitters.

Cumulatively, San Diego batters have hit .181 in 89 career plate appearances against Chacin; Colorado’s lineup owns a lifetime .161 batting average in 34 plate appearances against Stults. With Petco Park ranking twenty-eighth out of thirty stadiums in runs scored per game, according to ESPN Ball Park Factors, odds are high that runs will be hard to come by in this contest. Take under 7 runs at 1.87.

The Cincinnati Reds should perform well on the road against the Milwaukee Brewers. Reds left-hander Tony Cingrani has been a success as a starting pitcher in 2013.

In eight starts he’s 3-0 with a 3.15. The team has gone 6-2 in those contests. He faced the Brewers once before and had a middling performance, giving up two runs in four innings on May 10. That said, the Brewers have scuffled mightily since then, going 19-32 following that contest. In other words, this Brewers team isn’t as good as they were then.

Overall, Milwaukee’s run production has been below average in the National League. Moreover, being at home hasn’t been an advantage – they’re 20-25 coming into this series at Miller Park. Brewers’ starter Wily Peralta doesn’t add any confidence into the mix for Milwaukee supporters. He owns a 5.27 ERA and has only lasted as many as seven innings once in his past six starts, which means the Brewers bullpen should factor in the result.

Milwaukee’s relievers have given up the most runs per game of any bullpen in the National League.

Best bet: Choose the Reds to win at 1.66