I want to believe in the wonderful story that is the Colorado Rockies Jamie Moyer. After all, he’s a 49-year-old pitcher trying to become the oldest man to win a Major League game. Unfortunately, on Thursday, I don’t see him getting it. He’s pitching at his home stadium, Coors Field, which doesn’t translate well to his slow stuff and his propensity to give up home runs. (No pitcher in the history of baseball has given up more homers than Moyer.)
It doesn’t help Moyer’s cause that he’s throwing against the San Francisco Giants’ hot line up - through the start of this week San Francisco were tied for third in the NL with 5.25 runs per game. As a result, the Giants, despite being on the road, are a better bet at 1.77 than the Rockies at 2.05.
Another road team with a good shot at a victory is the Miami Marlins at the Philadelphia Phillies. The Phillies lineup has scuffled so far this season, having scored a league-worst eight runs in their first four games. When one of their top pitchers is going (like Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee or Cole Hamels) they can overcome that problem. But Joe Blanton, who hasn’t sported an ERA under 4.00 since 2007, gets the call in this one.
As for the Marlins, Miami has averaged double the runs Philadelphia has put up in its opening games, and its starting pitcher, Mark Buehrle, is far more reliable than Blanton (Buehrle has posted an ERA under 4.00 in four of his last five seasons). Take the Marlins at 1.85 and pass on the Phillies at 1.95.