MLB Betting: San Diego Padres to cash in on improving Cashner

The St. Louis Cardinals should pick up a home win against rivals the Chicago Cubs on Friday. Cardinals starter Lance Lynn should throw well in this game. Last year, Lynn fatigued in the second half, but he’s shown better grit this season: in four post-All Star Game outings, the right-hander is 2-1 with a 2.77 ERA. In general, Lynn has also been very strong at home, where he’s 8-1 with a 2.66 ERA (in contrast to his 5-4 record and 4.88 ERA on the road). Lynn has faced the Cubs three times this year and dominated in two of the three outings. Overall, Chicago hitters have a subpar .242 batting average (and an even less impressive .296 on base percentage) against him.

The Cubs counter with pitcher Chris Rusin. The left-hander has started four games for Chicago. He had one solid performance on July 27, but that was at pitcher friendly AT&T Park against an offensively scuffling San Francisco Giants’ club. Beyond that, he’s given up nine runs in 13 1/3 innings, which isn’t a good track record. Pick the Cardinals to win at 1.45.

If you want a bit shot, consider taking the San Diego Padres on the road versus the Cincinnati Reds. This choice is predicated on the recent pitching struggles of Bronson Arroyo. The right-hander tends to be streaky and he’s currently going the wrong way: in his past two starts he’s 0-2 with a 10.00 ERA. Historically, Padres hitters have a pretty good track record against Arroyo, managing a cumulative batting average of .264, and posting a .464 slugging percentage.

Overall, San Diego aren’t a great offensive team (they rank below average in runs scored per game in the National League), but when Andrew Cashner pitches they seem to find their hitting stride. In ten of Cashner’s 18 starts, the team has scored five or more runs. They’ve even scored double-digit runs for him three times. If the Padres line-up can continue that trend, Cashner should be good enough to get the win. The Padres can be backed at 2.40.