Home run (Safe bet)
Take the San Francisco Giants, on at 1.57 to win at home against the Colorado Rockies. This is a Saturday clash between two clubs going in opposite directions. The Rockies started the season hot but no team in the National League has been scuffling more than Colorado as of late. The Rockies have a dismal 5-14 record in their past nineteen games. In contrast, over a similar stretch, the Giants are 14-6. Colorado’s particular problem – and one that will plague them in this game at AT&T Park – is how they’ve performed on the road. Coming into this weekend series, they had a nearly league-worst 12-21 record in away games.
Pitching-wise, the home field advantage will particularly help Giants’ starter Ryan Vogelsong. The right-hander has a 3.09 ERA in San Francisco and a 4.88 ERA on the road. So he’ll be pitching in a location that surely gives him confidence. The Rockies are going with Christian Bergman, who will be making just his second Major League start. He did well in his debut, giving up just two runs in six innings against the Atlanta Braves, but San Francisco is far better run-producing team so don’t expect a similar performance.
Squeeze play (Gutsiest call)
In Boston, go for over 9 runs at 1.85 when the Red Sox host the Cleveland Indians. A shaky pitching match-up plus two lineups in strong position to have good days equates to an excellent chance for a high run-scoring affair.
The Indians will send T.J. House to the pitcher’s mound, which isn’t a great thing if you’re a Cleveland supporter. House owns a 5.24 ERA and is coming off a terrible performance in which he gave up six runs on six hits in 3 1/3 innings pitched. It’s also worth noting that his road work has been particularly awful. In three away games, he has a 6.32 ERA.
Boston starter Jake Peavy has pedigree (he’s a former Cy Young award winner), but his game is in terrible disarray. In his past five starts he has a woeful 5.94 ERA. That stretch includes a beat down from the Indians on June 3 when they connected for eight hits and scored five runs in 6 1/3 innings pitched.
Regardless of the pitchers, both these teams would have been primed for offensive performance in this game anyway. The Indians rank fourth out of fifteen teams in run production in the American League. While the Red Sox haven’t been great overall, their performance has been solid at Fenway Park. In home games, Boston hitters have a combined .263 batting average, .345 on base percentage and .392 slugging percentage, which all vastly eclipses their road numbers (.229/.307/.354, respectively).
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