Home run (Safe bet)
Take the San Francisco Giants at 1.60 to prevail at home versus the San Diego Padres. It’s a thin schedule on Monday that leaves this game – although not a perfect choice – the best bet of the day. Neither club is playing well lately, but the Giants are just a more complete team (especially when at home).
Let’s start with the advantage (or disadvantage depending on your perspective) of AT&T Park in this match up. San Francisco has a robust 23-15 record there and, even more instructive, San Diego is a near league-worst 13-23 on the road in 2014.
Locale will also impact the pitchers here. Matt Cain is suffering through a woeful year. He’s 1-5 with a 4.52 ERA over eleven starts. But in his four games at home, he’s a much more respectable 1-2 with a 3.71 ERA. The Padres’ Andrew Cashner is a fantastic 2-2 1.39 ERA when pitching in San Diego, but hasn’t won in five road starts. He’s 0-4 with a 3.77 ERA in away games.
Squeeze play (Gutsiest call)
Choose the St. Louis Cardinals, on at 1.85 to win at the Colorado Rockies. You always have to swallow hard when betting against the Colorado Rockies in games they play in Denver. The Rockies have a unique home field advantage as – because of the altitude and dimensions – no Major League venue plays quite like Coors Field. And yet this contest will be won by the visiting Cardinals.
There are a few reason for this expected results. First, the Rockies lineup is currently in a state of some disarray. They are missing three of their best hitters to injury: Carlos Gonzalez, Michael Cuddyer and Nolan Arenado. Under these circumstances, they’ve lost some of their home field mojo. Coming into yesterday, the team was 3-9 in their past twelve home games.
Another big factor in this contest is St. Louis’ pitcher Lance Lynn. The husky right-hander is having a typically good season (7-5, 3.15 ERA), but more important is his career numbers at Coors Field. Usually, a pitcher’s repertoire doesn’t translate well there, but Lynn is an exception. In three career starts there, he’s 1-0 with a 1.96 ERA.
Finally, you have Jhoulys Chacin on the pitcher’s mound for the Rockies. He has a 1-5 record and a 4.53 ERA. While the sample size is small (51 career plate appearances), St. Louis hitters do have an excellent track record versus the right hander. They’ve hit .356 with a .412 on base percentage and .533 slugging percentage.
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