Home run (Safe bet)
Go with the New York Yankees – 1.53 - to win on the road against the Seattle Mariners.
For casual fans, it might be surprising to know that Seattle has been a better ball club this season than the historically vaunted Yankees. That said, the difference maker here is New York starter Masahiro Tanaka. The Japanese import has been nearly a sure thing this year. He’s 9-1 and has delivered a quality start (six or more innings pitched; three or fewer runs allowed) in all 12 of his appearances. This will be his first outing at Safeco Field, but Tanaka has shown he doesn’t wilt on the road. In six away games, he’s 5-1 with a 2.13 ERA.
The veteran Chris Young gets the pitching nod for the Mariners. Superficially, he looks like a good bet for his club, but a more sophisticated consideration says otherwise. While his ERA is 3.42, his fielding independent pitching (FIP), which tends to be a better indicator of his past performance, is a weak 5.38. The differential there, typically means that a pitcher has been overachieving and drop of lucky is quite likely.
Squeeze play (Gutsiest call)
Pick the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, on at 1.75, to prevail at home versus the Oakland A’s.
For the A’s, it’s just going to be too hard to overlook Tommy Milone’s bad history as it relates to this Wednesday contest. First, let’s discuss his career work versus the Angels. It’s just terrible. In 162 lifetime plate appearances, Los Angeles batters have an extremely robust .344 batting average, .383 on base percentage and .563 slugging percentage. Equally as worrisome with Milone is his terrible home-road splits. He’s a fantastic 2-0 with a 1.93 ERA in Oakland, but on the road he’s a woeful 1-3 with a 5.40 ERA.
The Angels have the added benefit of Jered Weaver starting the ball game. Like Milone, Weaver likes pitching at home (4-2 with a 2.79 ERA there; 3-2 with a 4.00 ERA elsewhere). Unlike Milone, Weaver is pitching at home. Weaver did get roughed up last time he faced the A’s (five earned runs in six innings of work), but that game was on the road and, in general appears to be an aberration. In 190 career plate appearances, A’s hitters own an unimpressive .205 batting average, .249 slugging percentage and a .278 on base percentage.