Home run (Safest bet)
Go with the New York Yankees at 1.62 on the road to win versus the Cleveland Indians.
The Yankees are teetering right at a .500 winning percentage and are facing a Cleveland team with similar success. Moreover, Cleveland has had excellent success at home, posting a 25-16 record at Progressive Field.
Still, the Yankees are right team here for a couple of reasons. The first is Masahiro Tanaka gets the starting pitching assignment for New York. The first-year starter has posted a dominating 12-3 record with a 2.27 ERA. He’s been nearly unbeatable on the road, where he owns a 7-1 record. His arsenal of pitches have proved excellent in their crossover from Japan to the United States and with the Indians hitters facing him for the first time, the advantage will very much be in Tanaka’s favour.
Beyond Tanaka, the Yankees are also playing in a favorable environment. Their 26-20 road record is one of the best in the American League. The Yanks hitters will face Trevor Bauer, a hard throwing one-time super prospect who has yet to fully pan out at the Major League Level. In ten starts this year he has a 4.42 ERA. It’s a performance that doesn’t seem to be improving. His ERA in his past five games: 4.75.
Squeeze play (Gutsiest call)
Look for the Colorado Rockies - on at 1.85 - to win at home versus the San Diego Padres.
This Tuesday contest is a battle between two poor clubs. Both have lost far more than they’ve won, but the separator here is home field advantage. As bad as the Rockies have been, they are at least hovering around an even record (21-22 coming into this week) at Coors Field. Even more telling is how the Padres have fared on the road, tallying a 15-24 record away from Petco Field.
Padres starter Tyson Ross is enjoying a strong season (2.93 ERA), but his work has always suffered when he’s left the pitcher friendly confines of Petco. This year he has a 4.18 ERA on the road, which is emblematic of a career problem in away games (in 56 career road appearances, he owns a 5.06 ERA). Lifetime, he’s yet to win at Coors Field (0-2 in three appearances).
All that said, even with his defects, Ross far outshines Rockies starter Franklin Morales, who has a dismal 5.51 ERA this year. Nevertheless, the Rockies are still the pick as Morales did outclass the Padres in his one start against San Diego this year (six innings pitched; four hits and one run allowed). In addition, as bad as Morales has been, he does pitch better at home (4.66 ERA) compared to the road (6.20 ERA).