New York Yankees v Detroit Tigers
The New York Yankees are normally dominant at home, but if you want to take a bit of a risk, bet on them to lose when the Detroit Tigers come to visit. The biggest issue with New York right now is the depth of their pitching rotation and no player exemplifies that problem better than Freddy Garcia. The former two-time All-Star has been downright terrible. His overall ERA is 9.75 in his first three starts and he’s just gotten worse each time out. He was roughed up by the Boston Red Sox a week ago, surrendering five runs and seven hits in just 1 2/3 innings. His opponent Drew Smyly is far from a household name. That said he’s already made history this year, becoming the first Tiger pitcher since 1918 to concede less than two runs in each of the first three starts of his career. Go with the best value Tigers on the road at 2.00, instead of the Yankees at 1.81.
San Francisco Giants v San Diego Padres
So far this season AT&T Park has been the worst hitters’ park in the baseball. (It’s always had a history of being pitcher friendly, but it’s playing even more in that direction in 2012.) As a result, when the San Francisco Giants host the San Diego Padres tonight, expect the runs count to be low. Some may be jittery at hearing that the Giants are starting Tim Lincecum. Much has been made of the two-time Cy Young Award winner’s early struggles. But in his last outing he showed signs that his pitching mechanics are more in line with the form that made him such a beast in years past. His command is still a little wobbly, but he should have enough to keep the Padres’ feeble run-producing offence in check. San Diego’s Anthony Bass also has momentum on his side. He beat the Philadelphia Phillies in his last start, going six innings while yielding just three hits and one unearned run (he also struck out seven). Like Lincecum, he walked more than he should have, but if he can show just a bit more control, this is a good game to take under 6.5 runs, which is on at 1.85, and skip the over at 1.95.