We're basically hitting the halfway point of the season, and we are learning how inconsistent most of the teams in the NFL are.
Whether this is down to the easier, shorter training camps, or down to salary caps prohibiting stockpiling depth, or new protocols and artificial turfs exacerbating injury time off, I do not know, but there is no one who looks like a complete team right now except possibly the Broncos.
It makes picking tough, as you will be aware if you followed my suggestions last week. But hang in there; I have a , well, feeling about this week....
BEST BET: KANSAS CITY (-10 at 2.05) vs NY Jets.
Given my track record last week, calling this a Best Bet is like calling the Edsel car of the year, or the Titanic my personal pick for the best cruise.
If you've been following this column you'll know I shy away from big spreads, because it's hard to predict what any team will do once it holds a decent lead, and there is a tendency to take the foot off the pedal.
You can coast past this Jets team, because although the D can be pretty efficient, they make mistakes, and any mistakes they don't make the offense will compensate for.
The Chiefs are starting to look like an Andy Reid offense from Philly, only Charles and Davis are a better pair of runners than he's had since Duce Staley and Dorsey Levens in 2002 (maybe the three headed monster in 2003: Staley, Buckhalter and Westbrook).
Reid's never needed premier wide receivers, but he's starting to use the ones he's got, and he's got an aggressive D that can rush the passer which is bad news for former Eagle QB Mike Vick.
VALUE BET: NEW ENGLAND (+3 at 2.00) vs Denver.
It's not often the Pats are home dogs, and although on paper the Broncos have the more talented roster, Bill Belichick and Tom Brady have traditionally played well against Peyton Manning's teams (10-5 regular season, 2-2 playoffs) and usually kept the game close, especially at home.
I'm not as convinced in the GIANTS (+3 at 2.02) vs Indianapolis, who are also home dogs against the Colts; but they're rested and the Colts are on their second straight road game.
This could come down to turnovers, and the Giants have been good at causing them, which means at home this game is winnable and the three points are just there to help you out.
OUTSIDE BET: UNDER (47 points at 2.90) Denver at New England.
On the face of it this game ought to smash the over (which is why it's at 1.88) but often in these match ups, New England has been able to slow Peyton Manning down enough to keep the game within reach.
And this year Denver's D is strong enough to do the same thing to Tom Brady.
Both teams have a penchant for continuing to run up points in the fourth quarter of blow-out games, but I really don't expect this one to be a blowout.
ONE TO AVOID: Washington (pick 'em) at Minnesota.
You figure this makes the Skins the favourite, since usually home field is worth 2-3 points, but ask yourself this: who's playing quarterback for Washington? Is it Robert Griffin, who's supposedly recovered from his ankle injury, but may be rusty and wasn't setting the league alight before he was hurt, or is it Colt McCoy unexpected hero of last week's upset in Dallas.
Of course McCoy, who played at Texas, may have just been benefitting from a little home field advantage of his own.
The Skins blitzed the Cowboys into submission, and rookie QB Teddy Bridgewater has already been sacked 16 times in his short career; but with a week to figure things out the Vikes may have a plan for this.
The game matches up the Bengals offensive (Jay Gruden) and defensive (Mike Zimmer) coordinators from last season, which might be reason enough in itself to stay away.
Bet now on NFL.